Project Status

How It Works

Vision Prize® fills the gap between traditional scientific meta-analyses like the IPCC AR5 (which are robust but slow) and more timely sources like the Wall Street Journal editorial page (which may not accurately portray the views of experts).

Registered experts are incentivized to share their own carefully considered best guesses, without necessarily being influenced by what others might think. Charity gift card prizes — our way of thanking panelists for their participation — reward both surprisingly common answers and accurate prediction of the distribution of answers. After initial registration, participation takes about five minutes.

Informing Policymakers, Managers and Financial Markets

The purpose of our research is to help leaders, managers and investors make better decisions. Charts of poll findings show the degree of agreement or disagreement among expert participants on important issues. A key in the case of understanding climate change risk, the degree of agreement or disagreement among experts can be just as important as the single best guess of what the outcome will be. Findings are disseminated to major media, the financial and scientific press, investors, opinion leaders and bloggers, in collaboration with IOP’s environmentalresearchweb.

Benchmark Your Views

With the myVISION feature of Vision Prize, expert participants can privately compare their predictions of the views of their colleagues to the true distribution among our sample of experts, as shown in the example below.

The Foundations of Vision Prize

This interactive timeline highlights innovations that make it possible to generate better predictions in domains where expertise matters — like atmospheric CO2.